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The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
The global economic outlook remains solid. The US economy is especially robust and is expected to moderate over the projection horizon, as forecast in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will reduce trade policy uncertainty in North America, which has been an important curb on business confidence and investment. However, trade conflict, particularly between the United States and China, is weighing on global growth and commodity prices. Financial market volatility has resurfaced and some emerging markets are under stress but, overall, global financial conditions remain accommodative.
The Canadian economy continues to operate close to its potential and the composition of growth is more balanced. Despite some quarterly fluctuations, growth is expected to average about 2 per cent over the second half of 2018. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent this year and next before slowing to 1.9 per cent in 2020.
The projections for business investment and exports have been revised up, reflecting the USMCA and the recently-approved liquid natural gas project in British Columbia. Still, investment and exports will be dampened by the recent decline in commodity prices, as well as ongoing competitiveness challenges and limited transportation capacity. The Bank will be monitoring the extent to which the USMCA leads to more confidence and business investment in Canada.
Household spending is expected to continue growing at a healthy pace, underpinned by solid employment income growth. Households are adjusting their spending as expected in response to higher interest rates and housing market policies. In this context, household credit growth continues to moderate and housing activity across Canada is stabilizing. As a result, household vulnerabilities are edging lower in a number of respects, although they remain elevated.
CPI inflation dropped to 2.2 per cent in September, in large part because the summer spike in airfares was reversed. Other temporary factors pushing up inflation, such as past increases in gasoline prices and minimum wages, should fade in early 2019. Inflation is then expected to remain close to the 2 per cent target through the end of 2020. The Bank’s core measures of inflation all remain around 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that is operating at capacity. Wage growth remains moderate, although it is projected to pick up in the coming quarters, consistent with the Bank’s latest Business Outlook Survey.
Given all of these factors, Governing Council agrees that the policy interest rate will need to rise to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target. In determining the appropriate pace of rate increases, Governing Council will continue to take into account how the economy is adjusting to higher interest rates, given the elevated level of household debt. In addition, we will pay close attention to global trade policy developments and their implications for the inflation outlook.
The River House Estate,Telkwa
Fawn Bluff,Bute Inlet
5791 Newton Wynd,Vancouver West
2606 – 2610 Marine Crescent,Vancouver West
4566 NW Marine Drive,Vancouver West
1098 Wolfe Avenue,Vancouver West
4176 Crown Crescent,Vancouver West
1657 W King Edward Avenue,Vancouver West
1075 Douglas Crescent,Vancouver West
PH 2101 110 Switchmen Street,Vancouver East
4327 Locarno Crescent,Vancouver West
3979 West 33rd Avenue,Vancouver West
17809 Whitfield Road,Okanagan
4584 West 1st Avenue,Vancouver West
3690 East Boulevard,Vancouver West
4335 Rockridge Road,West Vancouver
2421 Eddington Drive,Vancouver West
9911 Bates Road,Richmond
2336 West 20th Avenue,Vancouver West
611 Shaw Avenue,Coquitlam
2817 138th Street,South Surrey White Rock
11220 Seaton Road,Richmond
3676 West 50th Avenue,Vancouver West
229 Fourth Street,New Westminster
2-2838 Birch Street,Vancouver West
10180 Finlayson Drive, Richmond,Richmond
615 Shaw Avenue,Coquitlam
1101 – 535 Nicola Street,Vancouver West
1552 129A Street,South Surrey White Rock
10640 Anglesea Drive,Richmond
3060 Outlook Way,Okanagan
203 – 1024 West 7th Avenue,Vancouver West
903 – 112 East 13th Street,North Vancouver
401-1265 Barclay Street,Vancouver West
516-6033 Gray Avenue,Vancouver West
102-719 West 3rd Street,North Vancouver
217-10780 No 5 Road,Richmond
206-4080 Yukon Street,Vancouver West
538 – 1515 West 2nd Avenue,Vancouver West
308 – 9098 Halston Court,Burnaby North
140-15230 Guildford Drive,Surrey
202 – 14100 Riverport Way,Richmond
103 – 930 West 16th Avenue,Vancouver West
113 – 9299 Tomicki Avenue,Richmond
Lot Q 739 Highland Road, Roberts Creek,Sunshine Coast
402 1875 West 8th Avenue,Vancouver West
304 8139 121A Street,Surrey
4003 West 31st Ave,Vancouver West
851-855 Terminal Avenue,Vancouver East
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